Merrill Lynch analysts, led by Brian Belski, Nicholas Roccanova and Jennifer Ziehe, have just issued a report comparing the three largest investment sectors in the market now: Energy, Finance and Technology.
Direct quote: "Owning Tech is about owning stability."
Yes. The industry that gave us the original "bubble" of our generation is now mature and acting all grown up. Say the folks at Merrill Lynch:
From our perspective, the (Tech) sector's near record level of cash as a percentage of assets, multi-year lows in valuation multiples, an expanding dividend base and increasingly consistent earnings growth is not only part of its natural maturation process as a sector, but also positions Technology as one of the most stable sectors within the S&P 500 from a fundamental standpoint.
Tech earnings growth has averaged between eight percent and 16 percent for the last several quarters, according to the analysts. That makes it a nice, safe haven in today's market.
Then again, Tech's peer group includes Finance, which recently saw its own bubble burst, and Energy, which has all the appearances of an industry about to go "pop" on the pressure of rank speculation and math that just doesn't add up. (Merrill Lynch puts it this way: "While we acknowledge that slowing global growth and demand for oil is widely debated, it is becoming tougher and tougher from our perspective to fight the laws of gravity surrounding the dramatic rise in oil prices over the past several months.")
Tech executives long ago learned the laws of gravity, at least where financial markets and earnings are concerned. Eight-to-16 percent growth rates are a lot easier to take if you're an executive who has lived through 85 percent declines.