Gartner Cuts 2010 PC Shipment Forecast on Weakened Consumer Demand, Tablet Growth

In September, Gartner projected PC shipments to grow 17.9 percent from one year ago. Just two months later, however, the IT research firm has cut its projection to 14.3 percent growth in 2010 for a total of 352.4 million units shipped. Gartner also cut its 2011 PC shipment forecast from 18.1 percent to 15.9 percent growth.

“These results reflect marked reductions in expected near-term unit growth based on expectations of weaker consumer demand, due in no small part to growing user interest in media tablets such as the iPad,” said Ranjit Atwal, research director at Gartner, in a press statement. “Over the longer term, media tablets are expected to displace around 10 percent of PC units by 2014.”

Since the launch of Apple's iPad in April, vendors such as Intel and Microsoft have been bombarded with questions about the impact of the popular device on the traditional PC market, especially the once burgeoning netbook market. In AMD's recent third quarter earnings call, CEO Dirk Meyer said tablets are cannibalizing sales of both netbooks and notebooks . "Clearly, the last quarter or two the tablet has represented a disruption in the notebook market," Meyer said.

In its research note, Gartner was careful not to term the tablet disruption a market inflection point. However, the research firm said a number of disruptive forces will continue to weaken the PC market going forward.

“PC market growth will be impacted by devices that enable better on-the-go content consumption such as media tablets and next-generation smartphones,” said Raphael Vasquez, research analyst at Gartner, in a press statement. “These devices will be increasingly embraced as complements if not substitutes for PCs where voice and light data consumption are desired. It is likely that desk-based PCs will be adversely impacted over the long-term by the adoption of hosted virtual desktops, which can readily use other devices like thin clients.”

Gartner outlined several key market trends challenging the PC market, including the difficult economic environment and reduced discretionary income, the growth of emerging devices such as tablets and ultra-mobile PCs, and extended PC lifecycles, which are delaying upgrades. Gartner also cited virtual hosted desktops (HVDs) as an important trend on the horizon, projecting that HVDs will begin to impact professional markets in 2012 as businesses embrace refurbished systems and thin clients over new PC purchases.