What Apple's Mac App Store Could Mean To The Market

Apple launches its Mac App Store later this week, and it's hard to tell what to expect -- at least initially.

We're going to trust that Apple won't have the same problems cutting the ribbon on its Mac App Store that it did when it first launched MobileMe: poor availability, feature glitches and bugs. (For the record, MobileMe is now one of the stronger online-based e-mail, calendaring, contact and storage products on the market.)

If the Mac App Store works, it will fundamentally change application development, software channels and use patterns.

Developers will find a new way to distribute software that takes advantage of the Mac OS X platform and native Apple applications like FaceTime, Time Machine, iPhoto, Garage Band and more. This could provide greater incentive for smart software developers to leverage the platform. Similarly, companies like Tom Tom have leveraged the native GPS functionality in the iPhone's iOS operating system to create an innovative, game-changing GPS application. That's if they don't mind Apple taking 30 percent off the top. (Although Apple won't hit them up for hosting, marketing or credit card fees.)

If developers buy in, this could mean quicker market adoption of Apple's technology for client-based video conferencing or storage backup than, say, similar apps on the Windows platform -- particularly in venues where iPhones or iPads are also in hand.

For software channels, it's fair to say the jury is still out on whether this will be a net gain for most VARs and solution providers. An App Store model for the PC has been pretty much inevitable since the iTunes App Store for iPhone launched in 2007 but now that it will be a reality the pace of change in the client software channel will become faster and more furious than ever -- and not just for the Mac universe. (Enterprise software channels have already begun to change in a major way thanks to the Cloud Computing and virtualization revolutions.)

If Microsoft is to begin to shift to an App Store model for Windows, they'll have to do better than they've done against competitors when they launched the Zune and Bing. The concept isn't new to Microsoft; Xbox 360 has done a fine job of delivering digital content on-demand, albeit for a targeted audience on a non-PC platform.

As far as use patterns, that ship has already sailed. The immediacy and ease-of-use of the App Store model is now an expectation for the millions now on iOS or Android platforms. But the Mac App Store will extend that expectation to the desktop and notebook and it will happen with lightning speed.

But it may not be all sugar and spice for Apple. While the PC, smartphone and tablet spaces will continue to be brutally competitive, Apple may feel the temptation to throw big obstacles in the way of competitors seeking access to the Mac App Store. If it does, the antitrust police may seek to involve themselves. Any business where one vendor controls an entire channel to market always runs into thorny problems. That means that no matter how great the Mac App Store is, and how many opportunities it provides for developers and ISVs, Apple could wind up being just one iPhone call to the 212 or 202 area codes away from big trouble.