Term Limits On State IT

To all solution providers that serve state governments: Drop whatever you're doing. It could be all for naught. Overstated? Don't be so sure. Even if long-term technology projects that are already far enough along move forward, the current state of politics could put IT initiatives in a deep freeze.

This year, 36 governorships and the majority of state legislature spots are up for election. The National Association of State CIOs (NASCIO) executive director Doug Robinson anticipates at least a dozen new CIOs being appointed after the elections, with 10 governors wrapping up their terms and two not running. More realistically, he predicts as many as 20 state CIO changes come January 2007.

What we do know for sure: The five governors whose terms expire at the end of 2006 are all Republicans, including Mike Huckabee (Arkansas), Bill Owens (Colorado), Jeb Bush (Florida), Kenny Guinn (Nevada) and Bob Taft (Ohio). Republicans Dirk Kempthorne (Idaho), Mitt Romney (Massachusetts), George Pataki (New York), Tom Vilsack (Iowa) and Mike Johanns (Nebraska) aren't running for re-election; of the latter two, Vilsack may pursue the presidential nomination in 2008; Johanns was appointed Secretary of Agriculture.

All of this could result in some of the most extensive political change that the nation has seen in recent years. The anticipated turnover in IT leadership, in fact, will be so drastic that NASCIO has formed a CIO transition workgroup that will, among other things, put together a First 100 Days Action Plan for new state CIOs.

For the channel, such change means disruptions in relationships, projects and opportunities. Few new contracts will be considered--let alone awarded--before spring 2007. Instead, current CIOs will spend the next three months trying to wrap up existing projects, perhaps abruptly, and incoming CIOs will spend at least the first few months of their tenure reviewing processes and previous projects, and developing long-term goals. Even CIOs that maintain their posts will reassess priorities with the start of a new term.

That makes the typically sensible channel strategy of tracking an agency's IT plans somewhat futile. Solution providers that have invested time and resources heretofore might have to start from scratch, not only learning the priorities of a new administration but also developing relationships with the decision makers. Suddenly, it's back to networking, awaiting budget allocations and so on.

Further, while plenty of administrations recognize the benefits of technology in terms of processes and efficiency, not everybody gets it. A change in leadership could shake up the number of initiatives on deck, the process of getting a foot in the door and the willingness of government officials to invest in multimillion-dollar IT projects. That, in turn, could bolster or diminish the amount of influence carried by the CIO.

While the glass-half-full mentality is to hope that these elections re-energize some state IT programs, the reality is that technology isn't always an agenda that wins votes.

A lot of solution providers cheered on Harris Miller, former president of the Information Technology Association of America, during his run for the Virginia Senate; here, finally, was someone who spoke their language.

But since Miller's washout in the Democratic primary, proponents have been left to decide between Democrat James Webb and incumbent Republican George Allen. The former seeks to repair the country's basic infrastructure and develop more creative ways to assist disaster-stricken areas. While those aren't exactly IT-rich priorities, there are sure to be some technology components involved.

The revolving door is, of course, the nature of a market that functions on two- and four-year terms.

The more savvy folks in the private sector will have seen this coming and taken steps already to adjust their business practices as much as possible. But for those that rely heavily on state and local business--which tend to be the smaller solution providers--this period of wait-and-see could do some significant damage to their bottom lines.

The best course of action? Think long and hard before visiting the polls in November. And hope for the best.