Android Surge Adds Pressure On RIM To Come Up Big with New BlackBerry

Both Apple's iPhone and smartphones running Google Android have made big gains against RIM in the past year -- Android grew as much as 886 percent in year-over-year shipments -- and although RIM still commands the leading market share among smartphone makers in the U.S., its position is challenged by a glut of faster, friendlier, feature-packed smartphones.

RIM will host a media event in New York at 11 a.m. Eastern to reportedly reveal the BlackBerry Bold 9800, a long-awaited new BlackBerry that according to rumors will come with a physical, slide-out keyboard, a 5-megapixel camera, 4 GB of internal memory, and a pumped-up touch-screen display that'll finally vault RIM into the ranks of the touch screen titans,.

And according to reports, the BlackBerry 9800 will be the first RIM phone to offer the new BlackBerry 6 OS -- expected to be a big leap forward for RIM from a software standpoint.

AT&T will be in attendance at the event, and is expected to be the BlackBerry 9800's exclusive carrier out of the gate -- a move that makes sense for AT&T given speculation that it will lose its iPhone exclusivity in the U.S. within the year.

Not much more is known about the event, but in recent weeks, rumors of everything from the 9800 to the potential unveiling of an iPad-challenging RIM tablet -- which may or may not be called BlackPad -- have bubbled to the surface.

All of the above means RIM has succeeded in the first stage of a successful product launch: buzz. Based on two recent research reports citing growth of smartphones and positioning RIM as bailing water against its two main rivals in the U.S., it'll need all the help it can get.

According to a study released this week by The Nielsen Co., 89 percent of iPhone users said they would buy another iPhone, and 71 percent of Android users said they would buy another Android phone. BlackBerry, however, doesn't enjoy nearly the same loyalty among smartphone users; only 42 percent of BlackBerry owners in the Nielsen survey said they'd buy from RIM again, and more than half of current BlackBerry users said they would jump to Android or iPhone for their next device.

All the while, Apple and especially Android are growing leaps and bounds. A report by researcher Canalsys this week said shipments of Android-based smartphones grew 886 percent in the second quarter of 2010 over the second quarter of 2009. Behind Android, it was Apple that grew fastest, posting year-on-year gains for the quarter of 61 percent in smartphones shipped.

What's more, Android shipments in the U.S. market -- the largest smartphone market in the world and accounting for about 23 percent of global shipments during the quarter -- grew 851 percent year-over-year in the quarter. RIM still maintains the No. 1 spot in the U.S. by vendor, with a 32.1 percent share, but Apple (21.7 percent) and HTC (14.4 percent), are both coming on strong, the latter with by now a large selection of Android-based phones.

Several statistics are working in RIM's favor, however, including that the overall smartphone market is continuing to grow.

According to Canalys, smartphone shipments overall grew 64 percent year-over-year in the second quarter, so even as Android and Apple continue to make huge gains, the pie for RIM and other competitors will only get bigger. And RIM isn't shrinking, either; shipments of BlackBerry phones increased by 41 percent in the quarter compared to a year ago, according to Canalys, buoyed by the less-expensive BlackBerry Curve 8250 phone.

But rare has the pressure on a single phone launch been so great, especially for once-comfortable RIM. Reported in late June, its Q1 earnings were solid -- especially with a 20 percent increase in quarterly profits -- but shares of RIM quickly fell thanks to weaker-than-expected unit shipments and fewer subscriber gains than Wall Street had hoped. At the time, several analysts tipped their hats to RIM's profitability, but couldn't mask disappointment for unit growth.

Whatever's coming Tuesday and in the next few months, it may be the difference in a triumphant -- or lost -- year for RIM.