Microsoft’s Windows 10 End Might Spark Start Of New AI PC Spending

‘Once you get your hands on a new PC or laptop and you see how much faster it is than what you’re currently using, it changes minds pretty quickly,’ says Alvarez Technology Group CEO Luis Alvarez.

The emerging market of artificial intelligence PCs could get an extra boost in 2025 from Microsoft solution providers moving their customers to Windows 11 with Oct. 14 set as the end-of-support date for Windows 10.

Luis Alvarez, CEO of Salinas, Calif.-based Microsoft partner Alvarez Technology Group, a member of CRN’s 2024 MSP 500, told CRN in an interview that he started talking to customers earlier this year to give them upward of 18 months to budget for a PC refresh.

Alvarez has leaned into the benefits of AI PCs for security, battery life, memory and processor speed—not even necessarily AI applications—plus the slowdown of PCs customers have had for more than five years.

“Once you get your hands on a new PC or laptop and you see how much faster it is than what you’re currently using, it changes minds pretty quickly,” he said.

[RELATED: Microsoft CEO: AI Provides ‘On-Ramp’ To Azure Data Services, Copilot Continues To Surge]

Microsoft Windows 10 End Of Life

At this time, customers can continue to pay for Microsoft’s Extended Security Update program to keep Windows 10 until Oct. 10, 2028.

A November report from Bank of America said that Windows 11 should cause between 36 million and 54 million commercial PCs to be upgraded between 2025 and around 2028, with AI PC security enhancements a motivator.

Morgan Stanley said in a November report that it forecasts 4 percent PC shipment growth year over year in 2025 driven by refresh demand, Windows 10 end of life and AI PC launches.

Even customers not won over by the AI era today might invest in buying an AI PC as their next device to be ready for when AI use cases are more prevalent.

“It’s critically important for customers to work with the partners that they work with to make sure that they are future-proofing their estate,” Nicole Dezen, Microsoft’s chief partner officer and corporate vice president of Global Partner Solutions, told CRN in a recent interview. “Windows 11 PCs are the most secure, most performant AI-capable devices in the market.”

During Microsoft’s Ignite 2024 event in November, several company executives highlighted ways solution providers can motivate customers to invest in an AI PC. Some of the more popular AI use cases include leveraging the neural processing unit on an AI PC for language translations during meetings, the “Click to Do” ability to quickly perform an internet search on an element on screen, local generative AI image creation without a network connection and improved video effects and noise reduction during video meetings.

Mark Linton, Microsoft vice president of worldwide device partner solution sales, said during the event that although AI PCs see average selling prices of $1,000-plus, less expensive models will help sell new users. According to Microsoft, Windows 11 has a 250 percent return on investment and facilitates 50 percent faster workflows than Windows 10.

Linton called the PC refresh “a major opportunity for our channel and our partners and customers.”

“Most of our solution provider partners now have brought an AI practice alongside their devices sales organization because it’s just a huge, huge opportunity there that we can take advantage of together,” he said.

Yann Calvez, Microsoft vice president of partner sales marketing and operations, said during Ignite 2024 that solution providers will see “the largest Windows refresh ever” with “dozens of millions of PCs still on Windows 10 in the commercial space.” He said that channel partners can generate seven times the economic value from a device sale by also offering services.

“Every device you refresh or you secure is a platform or socket to add additional services,” Calvez said. “We want to do more with you. We want to partner with you to co-develop value-added AI services that you can then monetize.”

Only 10 percent of small and midsize businesses, which typically use solution providers, are aware of Windows 10 end of support. But 65 percent of them will upgrade to Windows 11 when notified, Calvez said.

He estimated that the average Windows migration time for enterprise customers is 15 months, creating an urgency for the PC refresh. He also said Microsoft is firmly committed to the October date for end of support.

Additional materials Calvez said solution providers can leverage this refresh cycle include:

Solution Providers Aid The Refresh Cycle

Mike Monahon, vice president and CTO of advanced technology at Fort Mill, S.C.-based CompuCom, No. 59 on CRN’s 2024 Solution Provider 500, told CRN in an interview that “a perfect storm” is coming for some customers moved by new hardware, new processors and the new Windows to open their wallets.

Monahon estimated that about 25 percent of new PC purchases will be AI ones in 2025. “You’ll probably start evaluating the teams that can benefit immediately from upgrades to AI PCs,” he said. “The IT departments, the data analytics guys. The guys that have real demand will go to Windows 11, with AI PCs.”

Customers without a need for AI PCs will likely upgrade to Windows 11 and add memory to a device to save money. The hodgepodge of AI PCs and traditional ones will make device management even more important for solution providers, and for CompuCom, it is betting on its Full Lifecycle Observability (FLO) Framework as a differentiator in the channel.

“The FLO data will tell us who needs what, where, why,” Monahon said. “Can we extend the life, potentially, of your laptops? We do the whole life cycle of tech sourcing. That gives us the opportunity to take older systems, clean them, reimage them, put them back in stock. … We’re not just reselling the net-new PCs. We're actually creating value for our customers by utilizing data.”

Wayne Roye, CEO of New York-based Microsoft partner Troinet, puts the AI PC craze as more likely in 2026 than 2025. For him, he likes to separate customer conversations around OS upgrades, AI application adoption and AI PC adoption.

Still, the Windows 11 conversation is a good time to lay the groundwork for future AI adoption, Roye said. He expects customers in areas such as data analytics will be the earliest AI PC adopters.

“It’s like a building block,” Roye said. “Now you're putting [down the foundation] to be able to put your roof on the house.”

Alvarez Technology Group’s Alvarez said he has seen great interest in AI PCs from customers quick to adopt Microsoft AI products such as Copilot. The similar experience of using Windows 10 and Windows 11 will help motivate customers for the upgrade so that they don’t feel like they have to spend a lot of time learning something new, he said. Windows 11 has 99.7 percent compatibility with Windows 10 applications, according to Microsoft.

Even without the timing of a PC refresh cycle, OS upgrades are a good time for his business because they can take a few days in particularly complex customer IT estates and can be extra billable hours, Alvarez said. Sometimes with his larger customers, he also works in a conversation about potentially upgrading Microsoft licenses to get access to more applications.

Although the November Bank of America report warned of commercial customers who “forgo upgrading to hardware that supports Windows 11 over the short to medium term in order to upgrade when AI PCs are more mainstream over the longer term,” Alvarez sees solution providers as an important force in encouraging upgrades and talking small businesses out of trying to buy consumer-grade laptops online.

“It’s not worth the hassle,” Alvarez said he tells customers who try to hold onto an old device. “Just go ahead and invest in a new PC.”