UPDATE: Windows Vista May Not Ship Until Summer 2007

"Microsoft's track record is clear. It consistently misses target dates for major operating-system releases," according to a Gartner research note posted Monday. "We don't expect broad availability of Windows Vista until at least [the second quarter of 2007], which is nine to 12 months after [Vista] Beta 2."

Microsoft, however, disagreed with Gartner's projection about Vista's release timetable. "We respectfully disagree with Gartner’s views around timing of the final delivery of Windows Vista," Microsoft said in a statement. "We remain on track to deliver Windows Vista Beta 2 in the second quarter and to deliver the final product to volume license customers in November 2006 and to other businesses and consumers in January 2007."

Beta 2, also referred to as the consumer Community Technology Preview (CTP), is expected to be available by the end of this quarter, according to Microsoft.

One source close to Microsoft said the Redmond, Wash.-based company is nearing Beta 2, but he doesn't think it will be out by the end of next month. "It might make it in June, but I expect a second CTP in July and release to manufacturing in October, plus or minus a month, depending on how much breaks over the next few weeks," he said. "It's a crapshoot. I understand that the hardware testing is way behind."

Microsoft originally planned to ship Vista in 2005 but later shifted the release to 2006. Then in March, the company disclosed to OEM partners and system builders that it wouldn’t ship Vista broadly until January 2007, although it would hand over final code to enterprise customers with volume licenses in November.

Some system makers were outraged that Microsoft is giving the code to enterprise customers before its system builder channel.

"If we had code by Nov. 1, we could have systems ready by Nov. 15,” said one system builder, who requested anonymity. "This shows Microsoft catering to the OEMS because the OEMs can't move fast enough to have systems ready for the holiday season."

If more Vista delays occur, Microsoft will have bigger worries with its customer base, said James Fogg, owner of JDFogg Technology Consulting, a solution provider in Wilmot, N.H.

"The big issue is the Software Assurance clients. Most feel they essentially prepay for software that they aren't getting,” Fogg said. "It was a sore spot with SQL Server, and it will be a sore spot with Vista. The only thing cooling the situation is that most shops aren't ready for Vista and won't be for a long time."

Microsoft released Beta 1 of Vista last July and rolled out a series of CTPs in the fall. In the first quarter of 2006, Microsoft released the Enterprise CTP, which the company positioned as the first of two Beta 2 releases.

Microsoft’s current OS, Windows XP, shipped in the fall of 2001. A version with additional security features, called Windows XP Service Pack 2, came out in the fall of 2004.

*Story updated with Microsoft comment.