IDC Revises PC Shipments Forecast Down

In an update to its Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, IDC said also that a delayed economic recovery in Japan is also negatively impacting PC shipments on a worldwide basis. IDC lowered its total worldwide PC shipment growth for 2005 from 10.1 percent to 9.7 percent.

"The good news is that demand is likely to shift into later years and the growth forecast remains above 8 percent through the end of 2009," IDC announced. The market research firm said it expects total shipments of 195.4 million this year representing $209 billion. It predicts that 2009 shipments will hit 273 representing $245 billion.

Loren Loverde, who tracks PC shipment growth for IDC, said portable computer shipments should continue strong, as should shipments in emerging markets. Other factors driving shipments include adoption of mobile technologies, replacements of older systems, and increased penetration.

"We have kept the U.S. forecast modest because of what we see as a host of risk factors," said Roger Kay, IDC's vice president of Client Computing, in a statement. "These factors include a recovery that appears to be getting long in the tooth, a lack of jobs growth, rising budget and trade deficits, persistently high oil prices, a treasury-draining foreign war, rising interest rates, a stock market that continues to move sideways, and record-low household savings rates."

IDC noted that PC shipment growth in the U.S. was nearly 11 percent in 2004 and is expected to drop to 7.6 percent this year.