Lenovo, HP And Dell Are Betting Big On A PC Refresh In 2025 (So Is The Channel)

‘2025 is going to be a big year for client refreshes,’ predicts Todd Johnson, president of Avalon, a Dell Platinum partner. ‘There are multiple variables increasing the demand: Windows 10 going end of life and AI workloads on the PC, which have higher memory requirements. There is also a large aging PC fleet which was bulk-purchased during COVID.’

The world’s big three computer makers are all banking on Windows 10’s end of life to breathe new life into PC sales, as analysts and solution providers predict that 2025 will see the return of the workplace productivity king.

During each of their most recent earnings calls, Luca Rossi, Lenovo’s executive vice president and president of the Intelligent Devices Group; Enrique Lores, president and CEO of HP Inc.; and Jeff Clarke, vice chairman and COO of Dell Technologies, cited Microsoft’s Windows 10 end of life as the driver of the refresh that is to come next year, with commercial customers as the buyers.

Solution providers agree.

“2025 is going to be a big year for client refreshes,” predicted Todd Johnson, president of Avalon Technologies, a Dell Platinum partner based in Bloomfield Hills, Mich. “There are multiple variables increasing the demand: Windows 10 going end of life and AI workloads on the PC, which have higher memory requirements. There is also a large aging PC fleet which was bulk-purchased during COVID.”

While all three vendor executives spoke to investors about the inevitability of a PC recovery happening in 2025, Lenovo is the most bullish, predicting a rise in the percentage of PC units sold in the mid to high single digits and revenue to be just higher than that, Rossi said. Dell and HP are more conservative, forecasting their coming PC revenue growth in the mid- single digits.

Joining the 2025 PC bullish outlook is Michael Goldstein, president and CEO of LAN Infotech, a Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Dell and Lenovo partner.

“I’m all in on the Windows 10 to 11 refresh that they’re talking about resulting in a record year for PCs,” said Goldstein, whose business was recognized on CRN’s 2024 MSP 500.

Based on his hands-on experience, the AI PC will sustain that growth through rapid advances in computer features that improve the user experience in several small ways at once. He said smart features identify processor-use patterns to reduce heat, smart cameras know when to turn down displays to save battery life, and a long list of AI-enabled customizations make AI PCs more enjoyable to use.

“People expect that the AI PC is going to make the user smarter, but it’s making the device smarter first,” he told CRN. “If you look at what they’ve done with intelligent cameras, intelligent cooling, better battery life, I never hear a fan. It really is smart hardware.”

According to research firm IDC’s most recent figures, the PC recovery is coming, but it’s not here yet as global PC sales dropped 2.4 percent year over year in October with 68.8 million units shipping during the third quarter.

“After two quarters of mild growth, the market is taking a breather before going into the year-end buying period," said Bryan Ma, vice president with IDC’s Worldwide Device Tracker, in a statement that accompanied the research. “Downside risks remain in the current geopolitical environment, but we think there is enough upside going into next year to lift the market into modest single-digit growth.”

Gary McConnell, CEO of VirtuIT Systems, a Dell Platinum partner based in Nanuet, N.Y., said he is “cautiously optimistic” that 2025 will be the “year of the refresh.”

“We’ll refresh standard PCs and then expect a big wave of AI PCs a few years out,” he said. “I could be wrong here, but that’s my take when looking at our current customer base.”

IDC also predicted that the incoming swell of AI PC sales will land “well into” calendar year 2026 and beyond.

“While we expect AI to reach ubiquity at some point at the end of this decade, the ramp-up toward mass market will take longer than expected, well into 2026,” said research vice president of devices and displays Linn Huang. “The next year and change will be largely about developing software use cases and target audiences for this AI-enabled hardware.”

Here is some of the most recent data about PC sales from Dell, HP and Lenovo and what their executives expect to happen next year

Dell Technologies

PC Market Share: 14.3 percent

Recent PC Sales: Down 1 percent to $12.1 billion

PC Outlook: Up low single digits year over year

Dell has been predicting a PC refresh for several quarters, frequently citing the large installed base of devices as a reason buyers will soon want new machines.

Clarke was optimistic in August when talking about the ever-nascent refresh, saying that a slower start means a bigger landing in 2025.

“What’s important about that is as the refresh takes longer to start, history suggests it snaps back faster because the Windows 10 end-of-life date is not moving,” he told investors on the second-quarter earnings call. “So we have a Windows 10 end-of-life date. We have an aging installed base of machines bought during the COVID era, all mounting to be refreshed with exciting new products built around AI, and more AI applications are coming. And we remain optimistic about that recovery.”

On Dell’s most recent earnings call with investors in November, Clarke highlighted the continued challenges PC sales are encountering with slow-moving enterprise customers but added that there is hope for next calendar year.

“We are seeing an indication that customers are lining up their upgrade cycles with new AI PCs in the first half of next year, a clear signal that enterprises are balancing their need to refresh and their desire to future-proof their purchases,” he told investors. “Consumer demand and profitability continues to be challenged. We are optimistic about the coming PC refresh cycle as the install base continues to age and with Windows 10 reaching end of life in 46 weeks. The significant advancements in AI-enabled architectures and application development are welcome tailwinds.”

HP Inc.

PC Market Share: 19.7 percent

Recent PC Sales: Up 2 percent to $9.6 billion

PC Outlook: Mid-single-digit growth later in the year

Lores told investors during the company’s most recent earnings call that HP is banking on commercial accounts to open up their wallet to PC spending in 2025 before consumers do. Commercial PC customers represented 48 percent of HP’s overall revenue last year and 46 percent in its most recent quarter. Commercial customers accounted for 68 percent of all of HP’s PC sales last quarter.

“We have significant opportunities to accelerate in our key growth areas, especially in commercial where the market is growing faster than consumer,” he said.

AI PCs made up 15 percent of HP sales in its most recent quarter, giving it the No. 1 position in sales of Windows AI PCs in the market.

“That’s a position we plan to maintain,” Lores said.

By this time next year, HP expects AI PCs will make up 25 percent of the company’s PC sales.

Lenovo

PC Market Share: 24 percent

Recent PC Sales: Up 12 percent; $13.5 billion in quarterly revenue includes tablets and smartphones

PC Outlook: Mid- to high-single-digit growth in PC units

The PC market-share king isn’t about to give up its crown now, Rossi told investors during the company’s second-quarter 2024 earnings call.

He said Lenovo is overperforming the flat to low-single-digit growth market.

“We are delivering record market share in all geographies,” he said. And he expects that to continue, driven by commercial customers. Lenovo’s 24 percent market share is the largest lead it has had over HP in two years, said Rossi.

“We are modeling mid-high-single-digit growth in units for fiscal ’25 and ’26,” he told investors. “We expect Lenovo to outperform the market with positive premium to market and with differentiation opportunities driven by our innovations. … Additionally, for next year we anticipate the revenue growth to be slightly higher than the unit growth, with anticipated higher selling prices driven by model premium configurations. We also expect for next year a strong commercial PC market that should help beef up our margins.”

Lenovo said its PC sales last quarter got a big boost from government stimulus measures in China. There 14 percent of all notebook sales were Lenovo’s five-feature, intelligent agent AI PCs. Lenovo expects AI PCs to make up approximately 80 percent of the PC landscape by 2027.

Rossi said as AI hardware upgrades, AI software and use cases evolve, they will add value for users and make AI PCs a mainstream product.

“Looking at 2025 and beyond we are optimistic that the market is poised to enter into a new growth phase,” he said. “We see several positive tailwinds, the first one being Windows 10 end of life that now is confirmed for October 2025. A large installed base is now three, four, five years old and is now ready for replacement. And certainly we believe in the replacement cycle driven by AI PCs and new experiences and productivity enhancements for users.”