IDC: PC Refresh Has Started But Its Duration Is Uncertain

'We saw a lot of people before the political stuff were planning on getting PCs, either in the first quarter – which was good for us – or the second quarter. We are seeing people that have five-plus-year old machines, and this is the year they budgeted for it,’ says Michael Goldstein, president of LAN Infotech of Ft. Lauderdale, Fla.

The 2025 PC refresh is underway with device shipments up 4.9 percent in the first quarter of the year and commercial customers showing an appetite to buy new devices, however global economic conditions make the outlook for the rest of the year challenging to predict, according to market research firm IDC.

“In a first quarter still relatively untouched by tariffs, the entire ecosystem attempted to accelerate the pace of deliveries to avoid the first round of US tariffs and expected volatility for the remainder of the year,” said Jean Philippe Bouchard, research vice-president with IDC’s Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers, in a statement.

Michael Goldstein, president of LAN Infotech, a Ft. Lauderdale, Fla.-based solution provider, told CRN on Wednesday that his commercial customers appear to have baked in the cost of PCs and even stop-and-go tariffs have not slowed down their purchases. Helping all of this is Microsoft’s October deadline for Windows 10 end of life.

“We saw a lot of people before the political stuff were planning on getting PCs, either in the first quarter – which was good for us – or the second quarter,” he said. “We are seeing people that have five-plus-year old machines, and this is the year they budgeted for it.”

Goldstein’s comments to CRN fit what IDC saw in the market as well, with IDC’s Bouchard adding that just how tariffs will factor into the future spend, is still unknown.

“Evidently, commercial demand remained strong in the first quarter, but the new round of US tariffs announced on April 2 could have a direct inflationary impact on the PC market that could result in delayed IT spending for the remainder of the year,” Bouchard said in a statement.

Goldstein said he has not yet heard from vendors around pricing, but he did receive a note from a distribution partner who indicated that any additional tariff costs would be passed on to the buyer.

“You hear one thing, or you hear another. I don’t blame them for not coming up and saying it, because obviously, immediately everyone probably has (inventory),” he said. “If I go onto the disty’s site, I see plenty of desktops and laptops that are physically in stock. So, 30 days from now could change the story.”

Ryan Reith, group vice president with IDC’s Worldwide Device Trackers, said in a statement that so far IDC has not seen any big shifts one way or the other, which is expected given the uneven implementation of the duties.

“So far, our supply chain checks haven’t shown any drastic shifts, but this isn’t surprising as it’s almost too volatile to make drastic business decisions,” he said. “Companies are undoubtedly evaluating everything from inventory on hand, capacity to manufacture by location, possible reroute opportunities to lower import tariffs, and for some, their deal discussions with the US administration. When it comes to hardware like PCs and similar devices, we still maintain the view that most (if not all) price increases will get passed directly to the consumer.”

According to IDC figures, all of the big PC makers increased shipments in the first quarter, with Lenovo shipping 1.5 million more units, HP sent 800,000 more, Dell upped its first quarter shipments by 300,000, and Apple sent 700,000 more.

Lenovo still held onto the No. 1 spot in PC sales with 24.1 percent market share, followed by HP Inc., which had 20 percent. Dell Technologies came in third with 15.4 percent of the PC market.