Report: Next U.S. iPhone Carrier Probably T-Mobile, Not Verizon

Shaw Wu, an influential analyst with Kaufman Bros., wrote in a Thursday note to investors that according to his sources, not only is a non-AT&T iPhone on the immediate horizon but also that it'll most likely be on T-Mobile.

That iPhone, wrote Wu, is "closer to reality than ever." It "could happen as early as this fall" or by early 2011, and it'll be T-Mobile that gets the phone because its 3G network services are, in set up, similarly to AT&Ts.

More specifically, AT&T and T-Mobile both offer 3G services on UMTS/HSPA technology, while Verizon is CDMA. The leap for Apple from AT&T to T-Mobile, in other words, wouldn't be a big one.

"Both the new iPhone 4 and iPhone 3Gs support 3G at the 2100 Mhz frequency and, from our understanding, the technical hurdle to support T-Mobile is minor compared to supporting CDMA technology at [Verizon] and Sprint," Wu wrote in the note.

What most observers can agree on, Wu suggested, is that a second carrier for iPhone in the U.S. is in Apple's not-too-distant future.

The growth of iPhone has been steady and needs to continue to be that way, and according to Wu, adding a second carrier for iPhone could see growth rates for iPhone as high as 107 percent. Apple has also ended formerly exclusive carrier contracts for iPhone all over the world.

It would also be a big win for T-Mobile, which has struggled in recent years and could use a showpiece smartphone to, as Wu pointed out, win back lost customers. That fact means T-Mobile "could be more likely to agree to Apple's terms," Wu wrote.

A Verizon iPhone has long been rumored, and in late March, The Wall Street Journal cited sources close to Apple as saying that a CDMA version of the iPhone was definitely in the works.

Verizon may still get its shot at the iPhone as a 4G device, too. Verizon is at work on developing 4G Long-Term Evolution (LTE) technology in the U.S. and both it and Apple will need a 4G showpiece to counter Sprint and the recently released HTC EVO 4G, which runs Google's white-hot Android platform.

Wu further noted that Apple is taking the Google Android threat seriously.

"Android's wins have been where iPhone isn't available, and that could change dramatically if the iPhone were available on more carriers," he wrote.