RetailVision: Retailers Predict A Very Merry Fourth Quarter

Despite those conditions, however, many retailers at RetailVision 2008 in San Diego are looking to the ever-powerful fourth quarter to break the economic slide. While some say they are approaching the fourth "-which is typically a retail boom because of holiday spending -- with "cautious optimism," others immediately draw a line in the sand, predicting one of the strongest fourth quarters in years.

"The fourth quarter is definitely the biggest part of the year for online," said Andrei Kibrik, director of merchandising computers and electronics for online retailer Overstock.com, adding that Overstock is predicting fourth quarter growth of 20 percent to 35 percent over the same time period last year.

The only factor that could hinder, or at least postpone, massive spending as the holidays roll around is the election, which Kibrik said will have consumers preoccupied. He expects, however, the holiday rush to start, albeit delayed, once a president is picked.

Mario Razmilovic, director of audio/video for Overstock, agreed that the fourth quarter is going to be a big one.

"All signs are indicating the fourth quarter isn't going to be that bad," he said, noting that gas prices have started to drop and the housing market is poised for a turnaround. Razmilovic said the industry will be "pleasantly surprised," once gadget-hungry holiday shoppers start opening their wallets.

For Overstock, a solid mix of LCD TVs, GPS systems and HD digital video cameras are expected to be the hot sellers as old Saint Nick prepares to load up his sleigh.

Albert Liniado, president of DataVision Computer Video, agreed that products like LCDs, GPS, mobile phones, Bluetooth earpieces and memory equipment are going to be a catalyst for a strong fourth quarter. The same goes for sales of Apple products, which Liniado said are already up 50 percent from last year. And the Internet will facilitate those sales stronger more strongly.

"Retail is now driving the Web," he said. "We're going to see a big fourth quarter increase on the Internet."

Liniado said consumers have been pinching their pennies all year saving up for the holidays. He said DataVision has already started to see an increase in sales over the past six and eight weeks.

"We're excited about that," he said.

Liniado even made the bold prediction that this year will see the "biggest Black Friday ever."

Canadian retailers, too, are looking to the fourth quarter to bring sales back to a comfortable level.

"We still have a positive outlook," said Michael Yahn, MP3 and accessories merchant for Canadian consumer electronics chain Future Shop. "We followed suit [with the U.S.]; people have pulled back and are being more cautious with their purchases, but as a retailer you have to adapt. I don't think we'll struggle in the fourth quarter."

Steve Boone, sales and marketing director for Edmonton-based retailer MyMacDealer, agreed.

"A lot of people will have some uncertainty," he said. "We've seen some of the impact, but come Oct. 1 it will pick up. By no means with the fourth quarter be bad."

Whether the prediction for the fourth quarter in retail is simply "not bad" or excellent, DataVision's Liniado summed up his favorable outlook like this: "Christmas is Christmas; bottom line. People have to buy for Christmas; even if they don't buy all year, they have to spend at Christmas."